March 28, 2023


For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Mets.

Batters

Closing a deal with Carlos Correa would obviously improve the team’s outlook, but the situation at third base — Correa’s likely position — is hardly dire. Eduardo Escobar is a league-average if quite unexciting player, and if his thumb is better, Brett Baty ought to provide additional depth as the season goes on. Even if I’m not quite as optimistic about Brandon Nimmo’s attendance record as the depth charts are, he has a long history of providing a lot of value even while missing a lot of games. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are elite players at their respective positions, and Jeff McNeil isn’t that far off that status. Mark Canha and Starling Marte make up a solid supporting cast.

I understand where the team is going with the catching. Right now, the Mets are probably more interested in Omar Narváez and Tomás Nido being a serviceable duo than they are in the higher upside but riskier play of Francisco Álvarez behind the plate, especially given that he’s coming off ankle surgery. He’ll likely be a pretty good DH, especially when he’s got a good platoon-mate, but I can’t help but think that the Mets face a similar dilemma with Álvarez as the Blue Jays did with Gabriel Moreno, in that they have an exciting young catcher who they can’t really leverage as one. It does make me wonder if, as unpopular as this may be, the team’s better long-term move is to trade him for someone who can help the Mets top the Braves, leaving Álvarez on a team that can more easily use him behind the plate until he proves he’s not suitable.

The top end of this group is good enough that the Mets should repeat as one of the top offenses in the National League.

Pitchers

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander make up one of the oldest one-two punches in history, but the goal is to crush the league right now and worry about 2028 later on. They’re both a bit off their peaks, which isn’t unexpected given their ages, but there isn’t anything really scary in their peripherals to suggest that a plummet off a cliff looms. ZiPS is optimistic about Kodai Senga, seeing him as a solid no. 3 in his 2023 debut, and José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco are quite good for back-of-the-rotation starters. If healthy, the Mets have one of the top starting fives in baseball. And unlike much of the Wilpon era, the team has enough depth to survive some injuries, with Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Joey Lucchesi (who returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2022) providing reasonable reinforcements. Should disaster strike, I expect the Mets to be quite aggressive in the trade market; Steve Cohen isn’t spending a bazillion dollars with the goal of going 88-74.

The Mets bullpen stands at the back of the first tier of bullpens in ZiPS, though a lot of that projection is highly concentrated in the top two pitchers, Edwin Díaz and Adam Ottavino. Drew Smith, David Robertson, Brooks Raley, and Bryce Montes de Oca all look to be at least adequate, and it makes for a good group considering the Mets had the challenge of watching most of last year’s ‘pen hit free agency this winter. I do think this is a place where the Mets may add another depth piece or two.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Francisco Lindor B 29 SS 649 577 90 147 26 3 25 89 58 114 13 5
Carlos Correa Maybe? R 28 3B 590 517 76 137 25 1 23 75 64 116 0 1
Brandon Nimmo L 30 CF 575 492 80 133 24 5 13 58 68 103 4 3
Pete Alonso R 28 1B 647 563 86 147 27 1 38 112 65 129 3 1
Jeff McNeil L 31 2B 538 485 64 140 31 1 10 59 37 63 3 1
Brett Baty L 23 3B 484 434 68 110 17 0 19 69 41 130 1 3
Francisco Álvarez R 21 C 500 431 64 95 19 0 21 69 55 140 1 1
Starling Marte R 34 RF 495 451 72 120 22 3 13 61 29 93 21 6
Mark Canha R 34 LF 525 438 72 106 19 2 14 57 60 104 5 1
Omar Narváez L 31 C 375 331 38 82 14 1 8 37 37 72 0 1
Mark Vientos R 23 3B 436 394 52 90 15 2 19 61 37 142 0 2
Eduardo Escobar B 34 3B 548 499 63 116 21 4 21 71 42 121 1 1
Luis Guillorme L 28 2B 332 290 31 75 11 1 3 26 37 49 1 1
Daniel Vogelbach L 30 1B 442 366 49 79 14 1 17 57 74 112 0 1
Danny Mendick R 29 SS 362 327 43 76 12 1 8 41 29 80 5 3
Darin Ruf 러프 R 36 1B 319 275 40 61 11 1 12 39 38 92 2 1
Ronny Mauricio B 22 SS 542 516 59 117 19 3 18 66 21 144 10 7
Wyatt Young L 23 2B 512 459 57 105 18 3 4 46 49 116 4 3
Travis Jankowski L 32 CF 237 204 33 45 6 1 1 15 31 51 10 2
Deven Marrero R 32 SS 281 253 29 51 7 1 5 24 24 80 4 1
Abraham Almonte B 34 LF 348 301 51 75 20 2 12 46 44 83 4 2
Gosuke Katoh L 28 2B 379 339 42 76 14 2 6 35 35 100 5 2
Jose Peraza R 29 2B 296 276 31 73 17 1 5 36 12 41 3 2
Tyler Naquin L 32 RF 369 340 42 78 18 3 10 47 23 95 4 2
Tomás Nido R 29 C 275 252 26 56 10 0 5 24 13 69 0 1
Nic Gaddis R 26 3B 341 293 35 59 13 1 6 32 36 92 1 1
Ender Inciarte L 32 CF 198 178 22 40 6 1 3 16 17 38 4 2
Michael Perez L 30 C 249 223 19 40 7 0 7 28 23 72 1 1
Terrance Gore R 32 CF 95 82 15 15 3 1 0 5 10 33 10 3
Jake Mangum B 27 CF 341 314 43 75 13 3 4 37 17 73 9 4
Oscar Campos R 26 C 157 152 13 37 6 0 2 15 3 30 1 1
Daniel Palka L 31 1B 436 388 52 82 15 1 15 50 45 122 1 1
Yolmer Sanchez B 31 2B 417 364 41 76 12 2 5 36 44 109 4 3
Jose Peroza R 23 2B 447 402 42 83 17 1 8 46 33 140 2 1
Lorenzo Cedrola R 25 CF 489 460 56 121 18 5 5 56 14 82 9 6
Nick Meyer R 26 C 295 260 29 55 8 1 3 25 27 69 7 3
Matt Rudick L 24 LF 352 308 43 65 13 2 2 35 31 72 8 3
Cody Bohanek R 27 3B 349 300 36 50 12 1 4 34 32 133 7 4
Kevin Kendall L 24 SS 111 101 10 21 4 1 0 10 7 33 2 1
Johneshwy Fargas R 28 CF 336 305 41 63 8 2 5 33 19 95 19 6
Tzu-Wei Lin L 29 SS 166 149 16 28 5 0 2 11 15 51 3 1
Khalil Lee L 25 RF 471 407 53 80 19 1 9 57 48 174 12 6
Jose Colina B 25 C 112 98 11 16 3 0 2 15 10 46 0 1
Scott Ota L 25 DH 139 126 15 26 7 2 2 13 10 34 1 1
Jonathan Araúz B 24 2B 340 312 36 73 12 1 6 33 24 68 2 1
Luke Ritter R 26 3B 455 406 44 75 15 1 10 47 37 161 4 2
Carlos Cortes L 26 LF 463 422 47 88 21 2 10 47 33 128 1 2
Matt Winaker L 27 1B 282 241 30 47 8 2 3 27 28 74 1 1
JT Riddle L 31 SS 348 330 37 70 16 2 7 34 12 83 1 1
Branden Fryman R 25 2B 217 205 17 40 6 0 2 15 9 62 5 2
Jose Mena R 26 C 289 277 24 59 10 0 5 26 9 79 0 1
Hayden Senger R 26 C 301 275 27 55 13 2 4 32 17 113 1 1
Matt O’Neill R 25 C 250 215 21 33 4 1 2 18 31 107 0 1
Nick Plummer L 26 RF 396 344 39 66 14 2 8 46 38 142 5 4
Tanner Murphy R 25 LF 212 191 17 33 6 1 3 19 15 79 2 1
Mateo Gil R 22 3B 308 289 30 58 12 2 5 28 15 99 1 3
Rowdey Jordan B 24 LF 377 337 32 68 13 2 3 30 35 103 6 4
Joe Suozzi R 25 RF 248 224 25 40 6 2 4 27 15 99 5 2
William Lugo R 21 3B 455 414 48 83 17 1 10 47 34 149 1 1
Zach Ashford L 26 RF 346 316 29 68 14 1 3 32 23 88 5 2
Agustin Ruiz L 23 RF 429 388 47 77 15 1 10 47 30 129 2 1
Carlos Rincon R 25 RF 362 333 36 66 15 0 9 37 24 125 1 1
Jeremy Vasquez L 26 1B 431 390 31 85 19 0 4 36 36 92 0 1
Quinn Brodey L 27 RF 324 300 30 57 13 2 5 29 18 119 10 3
Warren Saunders R 24 2B 295 274 29 55 8 1 2 22 14 89 0 1
Junior Tilien R 20 SS 343 323 33 65 12 1 7 31 19 101 1 1
JT Schwartz L 23 1B 423 384 41 79 15 2 4 40 31 100 2 2
Brandon McIlwain R 25 CF 373 336 31 67 11 2 5 39 25 131 6 4
Alex Ramirez R 20 CF 530 493 46 104 20 4 7 53 28 165 10 10

Batters – Advanced

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Francisco Lindor 649 .255 .328 .440 113 .185 .279 11 5.5 .330
Carlos Correa Maybe? 590 .265 .347 .451 122 .186 .302 13 5.4 .344
Brandon Nimmo 575 .270 .371 .419 121 .148 .319 4 4.6 .348
Pete Alonso 647 .261 .349 .515 138 .254 .275 -2 4.1 .363
Jeff McNeil 538 .289 .353 .419 116 .130 .316 -2 3.3 .337
Brett Baty 484 .253 .331 .424 110 .171 .319 3 2.9 .330
Francisco Álvarez 500 .220 .318 .411 102 .190 .274 -3 2.6 .317
Starling Marte 495 .266 .327 .415 106 .149 .310 5 2.4 .323
Mark Canha 525 .242 .360 .390 111 .148 .288 -5 1.9 .334
Omar Narváez 375 .248 .328 .369 95 .121 .295 -1 1.8 .307
Mark Vientos 436 .228 .298 .421 99 .193 .305 0 1.6 .309
Eduardo Escobar 548 .232 .292 .417 96 .184 .266 -2 1.5 .303
Luis Guillorme 332 .259 .345 .334 92 .076 .303 2 1.4 .305
Daniel Vogelbach 442 .216 .348 .399 109 .183 .262 -2 1.4 .330
Danny Mendick 362 .232 .299 .349 80 .116 .285 2 0.7 .286
Darin Ruf 319 .222 .323 .400 101 .178 .287 1 0.9 .316
Ronny Mauricio 542 .227 .260 .380 76 .153 .280 -1 0.8 .275
Wyatt Young 512 .229 .305 .307 73 .078 .298 1 0.7 .276
Travis Jankowski 237 .221 .326 .275 71 .054 .289 2 0.6 .275
Deven Marrero 281 .202 .272 .296 60 .095 .274 5 0.6 .255
Abraham Almonte 348 .249 .345 .449 113 .199 .306 -4 0.7 .344
Gosuke Katoh 379 .224 .300 .330 77 .106 .300 0 0.5 .280
Jose Peraza 296 .264 .307 .388 87 .123 .296 1 0.5 .302
Tyler Naquin 369 .229 .285 .388 86 .159 .289 2 0.5 .289
Tomás Nido 275 .222 .265 .321 64 .099 .287 3 0.5 .256
Nic Gaddis 341 .201 .303 .314 74 .113 .272 0 0.4 .279
Ender Inciarte 198 .225 .294 .320 73 .096 .270 1 0.3 .274
Michael Perez 249 .179 .258 .305 57 .126 .229 2 0.2 .252
Terrance Gore 95 .183 .280 .244 49 .061 .306 2 0.2 .243
Jake Mangum 341 .239 .291 .338 76 .099 .300 -3 0.1 .277
Oscar Campos 157 .243 .261 .322 63 .079 .292 1 0.1 .254
Daniel Palka 436 .211 .294 .371 85 .160 .267 1 0.1 .290
Yolmer Sanchez 417 .209 .303 .294 69 .085 .284 -2 0.1 .271
Jose Peroza 447 .206 .278 .313 66 .107 .295 0 0.0 .263
Lorenzo Cedrola 489 .263 .298 .357 72 .093 .311 1 0.1 .286
Nick Meyer 295 .212 .295 .285 64 .073 .277 -4 0.0 .264
Matt Rudick 352 .211 .304 .286 67 .075 .269 3 0.0 .270
Cody Bohanek 349 .167 .276 .253 50 .087 .282 5 0.0 .245
Kevin Kendall 111 .208 .270 .267 52 .059 .309 1 0.0 .243
Johneshwy Fargas 336 .207 .272 .295 59 .089 .283 1 0.0 .253
Tzu-Wei Lin 166 .188 .261 .262 47 .074 .271 2 -0.1 .237
Khalil Lee 471 .197 .304 .314 74 .118 .317 -1 -0.2 .281
Jose Colina 112 .163 .259 .255 45 .092 .280 0 -0.2 .237
Scott Ota 139 .206 .273 .341 71 .135 .267 0 -0.2 .270
Jonathan Araúz 340 .234 .289 .337 73 .103 .282 -2 -0.2 .276
Luke Ritter 455 .185 .266 .300 59 .116 .277 0 -0.4 .254
Carlos Cortes 463 .209 .270 .339 69 .130 .275 3 -0.4 .267
Matt Winaker 282 .195 .306 .282 67 .087 .268 0 -0.4 .272
JT Riddle 348 .212 .247 .336 62 .124 .263 -4 -0.5 .252
Branden Fryman 217 .195 .235 .254 37 .059 .270 2 -0.6 .218
Jose Mena 289 .213 .246 .303 53 .090 .280 -4 -0.7 .241
Hayden Senger 301 .200 .266 .305 60 .105 .323 -7 -0.7 .255
Matt O’Neill 250 .153 .268 .209 37 .056 .292 -1 -0.7 .228
Nick Plummer 396 .192 .293 .314 71 .122 .299 -3 -0.7 .274
Tanner Murphy 212 .173 .250 .262 44 .089 .275 2 -0.8 .233
Mateo Gil 308 .201 .244 .308 53 .107 .286 0 -0.8 .241
Rowdey Jordan 377 .202 .279 .279 58 .077 .281 2 -0.8 .253
Joe Suozzi 248 .179 .254 .277 49 .098 .298 1 -0.8 .240
William Lugo 455 .200 .268 .319 64 .118 .286 -6 -0.8 .260
Zach Ashford 346 .215 .280 .294 62 .079 .289 -2 -0.9 .258
Agustin Ruiz 429 .198 .268 .320 64 .121 .269 -1 -1.0 .261
Carlos Rincon 362 .198 .260 .324 63 .126 .286 -2 -1.0 .258
Jeremy Vasquez 431 .218 .285 .297 64 .079 .276 0 -1.1 .261
Quinn Brodey 324 .190 .238 .297 49 .107 .295 1 -1.1 .235
Warren Saunders 295 .201 .254 .259 45 .058 .290 -5 -1.3 .232
Junior Tilien 343 .201 .248 .310 55 .108 .270 -10 -1.4 .245
JT Schwartz 423 .206 .274 .286 58 .081 .268 -1 -1.5 .251
Brandon McIlwain 373 .199 .273 .289 58 .089 .310 -11 -1.5 .254
Alex Ramirez 530 .211 .262 .310 60 .099 .302 -8 -1.6 .253

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Francisco Lindor .276 .352 .495 131 7.1 .232 .303 .401 96 4.1
Carlos Correa Maybe? .288 .370 .506 141 6.8 .238 .320 .407 105 4.2
Brandon Nimmo .294 .395 .469 138 5.8 .241 .342 .376 102 3.1
Pete Alonso .284 .372 .577 160 5.8 .238 .326 .462 118 2.4
Jeff McNeil .314 .379 .458 132 4.4 .262 .329 .380 98 2.1
Brett Baty .281 .358 .473 129 4.2 .227 .303 .366 89 1.6
Francisco Álvarez .251 .352 .471 128 4.2 .194 .290 .362 84 1.4
Starling Marte .288 .351 .460 123 3.5 .243 .306 .373 90 1.3
Mark Canha .267 .385 .437 128 3.1 .217 .335 .345 92 0.7
Omar Narváez .276 .355 .421 118 2.8 .221 .300 .319 76 0.8
Mark Vientos .259 .330 .488 124 3.0 .200 .269 .363 77 0.4
Eduardo Escobar .256 .317 .469 115 2.9 .212 .269 .367 76 0.2
Luis Guillorme .284 .371 .375 110 2.2 .228 .314 .298 76 0.7
Daniel Vogelbach .242 .377 .453 129 2.4 .189 .322 .348 91 0.3
Danny Mendick .258 .323 .397 99 1.5 .206 .275 .304 62 0.0
Darin Ruf .247 .349 .455 122 1.7 .198 .291 .344 82 0.0
Ronny Mauricio .251 .286 .432 97 2.3 .205 .237 .333 59 -0.5
Wyatt Young .255 .334 .340 89 1.7 .203 .278 .266 55 -0.5
Travis Jankowski .249 .352 .306 88 1.1 .198 .299 .244 57 0.1
Deven Marrero .232 .306 .342 78 1.3 .173 .246 .253 42 -0.1
Abraham Almonte .276 .372 .506 132 1.5 .223 .315 .391 91 -0.2
Gosuke Katoh .252 .328 .377 96 1.4 .197 .273 .289 58 -0.4
Jose Peraza .295 .338 .438 108 1.3 .232 .276 .338 66 -0.2
Tyler Naquin .257 .311 .435 105 1.4 .200 .254 .333 65 -0.6
Tomás Nido .256 .302 .367 87 1.3 .193 .240 .277 47 -0.1
Nic Gaddis .227 .331 .362 93 1.2 .172 .276 .270 55 -0.5
Ender Inciarte .251 .327 .364 92 0.7 .199 .270 .286 57 -0.1
Michael Perez .206 .288 .368 81 0.9 .157 .229 .257 39 -0.4
Terrance Gore .213 .308 .283 68 0.4 .161 .252 .213 35 0.0
Jake Mangum .266 .315 .379 92 0.9 .213 .264 .302 59 -0.6
Oscar Campos .274 .289 .361 80 0.6 .215 .232 .281 44 -0.3
Daniel Palka .233 .319 .420 103 1.1 .184 .269 .321 65 -1.0
Yolmer Sanchez .236 .332 .333 85 1.0 .185 .280 .255 53 -0.8
Jose Peroza .231 .302 .355 82 1.0 .184 .255 .280 51 -0.8
Lorenzo Cedrola .288 .321 .397 89 1.1 .235 .272 .317 54 -1.0
Nick Meyer .239 .326 .327 84 0.8 .179 .269 .250 49 -0.7
Matt Rudick .236 .328 .326 83 0.7 .188 .281 .252 53 -0.7
Cody Bohanek .194 .304 .298 68 0.8 .139 .250 .209 31 -0.9
Kevin Kendall .232 .294 .305 67 0.2 .185 .247 .234 36 -0.3
Johneshwy Fargas .231 .297 .333 75 0.6 .181 .247 .263 43 -0.8
Tzu-Wei Lin .214 .292 .305 67 0.4 .163 .234 .223 32 -0.4
Khalil Lee .221 .327 .360 92 0.9 .172 .276 .266 55 -1.3
Jose Colina .195 .289 .309 68 0.1 .134 .230 .212 25 -0.5
Scott Ota .233 .302 .394 91 0.1 .178 .249 .287 50 -0.6
Jonathan Araúz .263 .317 .387 94 0.7 .204 .258 .293 55 -1.0
Luke Ritter .207 .290 .348 77 0.7 .156 .237 .255 39 -1.5
Carlos Cortes .238 .295 .381 87 0.7 .187 .244 .295 52 -1.4
Matt Winaker .218 .331 .323 83 0.2 .168 .278 .248 51 -1.0
JT Riddle .241 .276 .393 83 0.5 .183 .218 .291 41 -1.4
Branden Fryman .223 .263 .291 56 -0.1 .167 .210 .219 21 -1.1
Jose Mena .243 .276 .345 72 0.1 .185 .219 .263 36 -1.3
Hayden Senger .229 .296 .352 79 0.1 .172 .243 .263 43 -1.3
Matt O’Neill .182 .298 .256 56 -0.1 .125 .238 .169 18 -1.3
Nick Plummer .217 .318 .359 87 0.1 .168 .268 .273 53 -1.6
Tanner Murphy .199 .279 .300 62 -0.3 .148 .226 .221 26 -1.2
Mateo Gil .229 .269 .354 73 0.1 .176 .216 .265 35 -1.5
Rowdey Jordan .226 .307 .315 74 0.1 .179 .257 .245 41 -1.5
Joe Suozzi .204 .279 .326 69 -0.2 .155 .231 .238 35 -1.3
William Lugo .228 .295 .365 82 0.2 .179 .241 .277 46 -1.9
Zach Ashford .237 .305 .330 77 -0.1 .188 .254 .259 45 -1.6
Agustin Ruiz .226 .295 .361 83 0.1 .174 .245 .278 48 -1.9
Carlos Rincon .221 .281 .366 80 -0.2 .174 .232 .282 45 -1.9
Jeremy Vasquez .245 .312 .338 81 -0.1 .195 .260 .262 49 -1.9
Quinn Brodey .215 .263 .342 66 -0.4 .163 .211 .253 29 -2.0
Warren Saunders .227 .280 .299 63 -0.6 .174 .228 .229 30 -1.9
Junior Tilien .231 .279 .368 79 -0.3 .172 .219 .260 36 -2.2
JT Schwartz .233 .299 .323 74 -0.6 .182 .249 .248 41 -2.4
Brandon McIlwain .223 .298 .329 73 -0.8 .170 .249 .252 40 -2.4
Alex Ramirez .231 .282 .346 75 -0.5 .187 .238 .275 45 -2.6

Pitchers – Standard

Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Edwin Díaz R 29 5 1 2.28 61 0 59.3 36 15 5 19 101
Justin Verlander R 40 14 7 2.84 27 27 165.0 125 52 21 34 177
Max Scherzer R 38 10 5 3.06 24 24 141.3 114 48 18 30 172
Adam Ottavino R 37 5 3 3.21 57 0 53.3 43 19 5 25 62
Kodai Senga R 30 10 7 3.46 22 22 140.3 112 54 15 39 142
Drew Smith R 29 3 3 3.61 46 0 52.3 42 21 7 17 56
Stephen Nogosek R 28 2 2 3.70 39 1 56.0 48 23 6 23 61
David Robertson R 38 3 2 3.70 46 0 48.7 38 20 6 26 61
Zach Greene R 26 6 4 3.74 32 0 53.0 42 22 6 23 65
Brooks Raley L 35 2 1 3.77 50 0 43.0 36 18 5 15 48
Bryce Montes de Oca R 27 3 2 3.91 41 1 46.0 35 20 4 28 60
Grant Hartwig R 25 4 3 3.93 36 0 50.3 42 22 5 23 55
Tylor Megill R 27 5 4 3.97 21 16 81.7 74 36 12 25 88
José Quintana L 34 6 6 4.04 28 26 133.7 134 60 15 46 123
Phillip Diehl L 28 2 2 4.04 47 0 49.0 45 22 6 18 45
David Peterson L 27 7 6 4.08 27 22 110.3 98 50 14 46 120
Josh Walker L 28 5 4 4.13 17 12 72.0 74 33 8 22 49
Denyi Reyes R 26 5 5 4.13 21 14 85.0 87 39 11 19 63
Tommy Hunter R 36 1 1 4.15 25 1 34.7 34 16 5 10 29
Jeff Brigham R 31 3 2 4.17 44 0 54.0 45 25 8 23 61
Joey Lucchesi L 30 5 5 4.17 16 16 82.0 76 38 11 29 74
Elieser Hernandez R 28 6 7 4.18 27 20 103.3 91 48 17 31 107
Zach Muckenhirn L 28 2 3 4.84 41 0 48.3 47 26 7 24 43
Chasen Shreve L 32 2 2 4.24 39 0 40.3 36 19 6 17 39
Eric Orze R 25 3 3 4.25 34 0 48.7 44 23 6 22 44
Jose Butto R 25 6 5 4.33 25 22 112.3 107 54 15 39 98
Yoan López R 30 2 3 4.34 40 0 45.7 43 22 6 20 42
Carlos Carrasco R 36 8 8 4.35 22 21 107.7 111 52 17 32 104
Tayler Saucedo L 30 2 2 4.37 31 3 45.3 42 22 6 21 43
Tim Adleman 아델만 R 35 3 4 4.38 20 10 61.7 62 30 8 22 49
John Curtiss R 30 1 2 4.41 27 2 32.7 29 16 5 14 37
Josh Hejka R 26 3 3 4.44 31 1 52.7 54 26 6 18 37
Locke St. John L 30 3 4 4.53 34 2 49.7 47 25 6 26 45
Jesus Vargas R 24 6 7 4.55 23 14 93.0 97 47 14 21 62
Dedniel Núñez R 27 1 1 4.58 20 4 39.3 38 20 6 17 39
Jimmy Yacabonis R 31 4 4 4.60 35 2 43.0 39 22 6 22 47
Jordan Yamamoto R 27 4 4 4.62 22 12 74.0 70 38 11 28 61
Félix Peña R 33 3 4 4.66 17 5 48.3 47 25 6 20 39
Joe Zanghi R 28 2 2 4.68 31 0 42.3 40 22 6 24 41
T.J. McFarland L 34 1 2 4.70 41 0 46.0 50 24 6 15 30
William Woods R 24 2 2 4.73 30 3 32.3 31 17 5 14 27
Mike Montgomery L 33 5 6 4.75 22 14 66.3 70 35 9 32 48
Connor Grey R 29 4 5 4.78 21 18 84.7 86 45 11 34 64
Hunter Parsons R 26 2 3 4.79 31 1 47.0 44 25 6 26 44
Sean Reid-Foley R 27 3 5 4.82 21 13 71.0 62 38 9 47 76
Alec Kisena R 27 4 5 4.83 15 12 59.7 61 32 8 29 47
Antonio Santos R 26 4 5 4.83 30 8 76.3 82 41 12 28 57
David Griffin R 26 4 6 4.85 22 16 78.0 79 42 11 35 58
Andrew Mitchell L 28 1 1 4.85 21 0 29.7 29 16 4 17 26
Oscar Rojas R 24 5 6 4.86 20 15 76.0 80 41 11 29 52
Anthony Vizcaya R 29 2 2 4.89 27 1 42.3 41 23 6 23 39
Cole Gordon R 27 3 3 4.90 18 11 64.3 61 35 9 36 56
Harol González R 28 4 5 4.91 17 15 73.3 79 40 12 25 47
R.J. Alvarez R 32 3 4 4.91 37 0 40.3 37 22 5 23 37
Alex Valverde R 26 4 5 4.93 24 12 73.0 71 40 11 31 66
Yennsy Diaz R 26 4 5 4.99 24 9 70.3 71 39 10 37 53
Justin Courtney R 26 3 3 5.05 33 0 46.3 48 26 7 22 35
Michel Otanez R 25 2 3 5.14 36 2 42.0 38 24 6 31 46
Tony Dibrell R 27 4 5 5.19 15 13 59.0 59 34 10 30 53
Justin Dillon R 29 3 4 5.28 19 10 61.3 65 36 11 24 47
Trevor Cahill R 35 2 4 5.29 17 8 49.3 50 29 8 24 40
Marcel Rentería R 28 1 2 5.40 19 1 31.7 31 19 6 18 32
Ryley Gilliam R 26 1 3 5.40 19 0 26.7 27 16 4 13 23
Brian Metoyer R 26 1 2 5.66 15 0 20.7 18 13 4 17 25
Kyle Wilson R 26 3 6 5.91 16 14 64.0 72 42 12 38 42

Pitchers – Advanced

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Edwin Díaz 59.3 15.3 2.9 0.8 8.2% 43.3% .295 171 2.06 58 1.9
Justin Verlander 165.0 9.7 1.9 1.1 5.3% 27.4% .253 137 3.37 73 4.2
Max Scherzer 141.3 11.0 1.9 1.1 5.4% 30.7% .283 127 3.18 79 3.3
Adam Ottavino 53.3 10.5 4.2 0.8 10.9% 27.1% .286 121 3.68 82 0.7
Kodai Senga 140.3 9.1 2.5 1.0 6.9% 25.1% .264 112 3.50 89 2.7
Drew Smith 52.3 9.6 2.9 1.2 7.9% 26.2% .263 108 3.78 93 0.4
Stephen Nogosek 56.0 9.8 3.7 1.0 9.7% 25.7% .290 105 3.71 95 0.4
David Robertson 48.7 11.3 4.8 1.1 12.4% 29.0% .281 105 3.98 95 0.4
Zach Greene 53.0 11.0 3.9 1.0 10.4% 29.3% .283 104 3.70 96 0.3
Brooks Raley 43.0 10.0 3.1 1.0 8.4% 26.8% .284 103 3.76 97 0.2
Bryce Montes de Oca 46.0 11.7 5.5 0.8 13.5% 29.0% .292 99 3.96 101 0.2
Grant Hartwig 50.3 9.8 4.1 0.9 10.6% 25.5% .285 99 3.87 101 0.2
Tylor Megill 81.7 9.7 2.8 1.3 7.3% 25.8% .290 98 3.90 102 1.0
José Quintana 133.7 8.3 3.1 1.0 8.0% 21.3% .307 96 3.85 104 1.5
Phillip Diehl 49.0 8.3 3.3 1.1 8.7% 21.6% .283 96 4.13 104 0.1
David Peterson 110.3 9.8 3.8 1.1 9.7% 25.4% .292 95 4.04 105 1.2
Josh Walker 72.0 6.1 2.8 1.0 7.1% 15.9% .291 94 4.15 106 0.7
Denyi Reyes 85.0 6.7 2.0 1.2 5.3% 17.7% .291 94 4.17 106 0.9
Tommy Hunter 34.7 7.5 2.6 1.3 6.8% 19.9% .287 94 4.39 107 0.1
Jeff Brigham 54.0 10.2 3.8 1.3 9.9% 26.2% .274 93 4.26 107 0.0
Joey Lucchesi 82.0 8.1 3.2 1.2 8.3% 21.2% .281 93 4.19 107 0.8
Elieser Hernandez 103.3 9.3 2.7 1.5 7.3% 25.1% .274 93 4.35 107 1.0
Zach Muckenhirn 48.3 8.0 4.5 1.3 11.1% 19.8% .288 89 4.75 112 -0.1
Chasen Shreve 40.3 8.7 3.8 1.3 9.9% 22.7% .275 92 4.49 109 -0.1
Eric Orze 48.7 8.1 4.1 1.1 10.3% 20.7% .277 91 4.49 109 0.0
Jose Butto 112.3 7.9 3.1 1.2 8.1% 20.4% .285 90 4.43 111 0.9
Yoan López 45.7 8.3 3.9 1.2 10.1% 21.1% .287 90 4.34 111 0.0
Carlos Carrasco 107.7 8.7 2.7 1.4 6.9% 22.5% .307 90 4.28 112 0.9
Tayler Saucedo 45.3 8.5 4.2 1.2 10.5% 21.5% .286 89 4.57 112 0.1
Tim Adleman 61.7 7.2 3.2 1.2 8.2% 18.4% .292 89 4.47 113 0.4
John Curtiss 32.7 10.2 3.9 1.4 10.0% 26.4% .289 88 4.26 113 0.1
Josh Hejka 52.7 6.3 3.1 1.0 7.9% 16.2% .291 88 4.60 114 -0.1
Locke St. John 49.7 8.2 4.7 1.1 11.8% 20.5% .291 86 4.72 116 -0.1
Jesus Vargas 93.0 6.0 2.0 1.4 5.3% 15.8% .283 86 4.65 117 0.4
Dedniel Núñez 39.3 8.9 3.9 1.4 9.8% 22.5% .296 85 4.60 118 0.0
Jimmy Yacabonis 43.0 9.8 4.6 1.3 11.6% 24.7% .295 84 4.53 118 -0.1
Jordan Yamamoto 74.0 7.4 3.4 1.3 8.8% 19.2% .274 84 4.82 119 0.3
Félix Peña 48.3 7.3 3.7 1.1 9.4% 18.4% .287 84 4.52 120 0.1
Joe Zanghi 42.3 8.7 5.1 1.3 12.5% 21.4% .291 83 4.90 120 -0.3
T.J. McFarland 46.0 5.9 2.9 1.2 7.5% 14.9% .297 83 4.65 121 -0.3
William Woods 32.3 7.5 3.9 1.4 9.9% 19.1% .277 82 4.89 122 -0.1
Mike Montgomery 66.3 6.5 4.3 1.2 10.7% 16.1% .295 82 5.10 122 0.1
Connor Grey 84.7 6.8 3.6 1.2 9.2% 17.3% .290 81 4.75 123 0.3
Hunter Parsons 47.0 8.4 5.0 1.1 12.1% 20.6% .288 81 4.79 123 -0.3
Sean Reid-Foley 71.0 9.6 6.0 1.1 14.6% 23.7% .286 81 4.90 124 0.1
Alec Kisena 59.7 7.1 4.4 1.2 10.6% 17.2% .293 81 4.93 124 0.1
Antonio Santos 76.3 6.7 3.3 1.4 8.3% 16.9% .297 80 4.92 124 -0.1
David Griffin 78.0 6.7 4.0 1.3 10.1% 16.8% .286 80 5.08 125 0.1
Andrew Mitchell 29.7 7.9 5.2 1.2 12.7% 19.4% .291 80 4.97 125 -0.3
Oscar Rojas 76.0 6.2 3.4 1.3 8.7% 15.6% .289 80 5.01 125 0.1
Anthony Vizcaya 42.3 8.3 4.9 1.3 12.1% 20.5% .292 80 5.00 126 -0.3
Cole Gordon 64.3 7.8 5.0 1.3 12.4% 19.2% .283 79 5.05 126 0.1
Harol González 73.3 5.8 3.1 1.5 7.8% 14.6% .286 79 5.14 126 0.1
R.J. Alvarez 40.3 8.3 5.1 1.1 12.6% 20.3% .283 79 5.09 126 -0.4
Alex Valverde 73.0 8.1 3.8 1.4 9.6% 20.5% .288 79 4.91 127 0.0
Yennsy Diaz 70.3 6.8 4.7 1.3 11.6% 16.6% .285 78 5.24 128 -0.2
Justin Courtney 46.3 6.8 4.3 1.4 10.4% 16.6% .291 77 5.16 130 -0.5
Michel Otanez 42.0 9.9 6.6 1.3 15.6% 23.1% .294 76 5.25 132 -0.4
Tony Dibrell 59.0 8.1 4.6 1.5 11.3% 19.9% .290 75 5.19 133 -0.2
Justin Dillon 61.3 6.9 3.5 1.6 8.8% 17.2% .290 74 5.42 136 -0.3
Trevor Cahill 49.3 7.3 4.4 1.5 10.8% 17.9% .288 74 5.28 136 -0.3
Marcel Rentería 31.7 9.1 5.1 1.7 12.2% 21.8% .291 72 5.68 139 -0.5
Ryley Gilliam 26.7 7.8 4.4 1.4 10.9% 19.3% .295 72 5.07 139 -0.4
Brian Metoyer 20.7 10.9 7.4 1.7 16.7% 24.5% .280 69 6.01 146 -0.4
Kyle Wilson 64.0 5.9 5.3 1.7 12.6% 14.0% .293 66 6.20 152 -0.7

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





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